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28 days later

It's easy enough to sermonise in hindsight, but one can still focus on what needs to be done for the future
Mohana Prabhakar

What we would have liked to bring to you here is a complete estimation of the economic damage that Gonu has brought to different sectors in the sultanate. Unfortunately we cannot for a variety of reasons. A prime one is that it is still too early to estimate what it has cost in terms of opportunities and business lost every hour and every day over the past few weeks, when establishments have been forced to remain closed owing to the extent of damage suffered. As we go to press, power has only just come back to the devastated shopping area of Qurm which comprises malls like Al Araimi, CCC and SABCO. Immigration is yet to open its doors for issuing visas. Insurance companies, even working overtime, cannot, just yet, see the end of the claims flooding in. 3,150 people from Quriyat are being housed at five centres in Muscat.

It is incredibly fortunate that what finally hit Oman had been downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it reached our shores. And yet, it proved clearly, as nature has always been wont to do in every part of the world, that while we build cities and take pride in building the tallest structure in the world, the highest flyover and so on, it is all about how we are doing it. Here is one simple lesson that has to be learnt: building in wadis is a bad idea. If some argue that it hadn't been proved conclusively till now, there can no longer be any way of ignoring this fact. It is the wadis that brought about maximum destruction. If you will build in wadi beds, or in any way hinder the path that the water takes by building roads for example, you will get the kind of ferocious force and upswell that submerged so many areas this time.

Another interesting fact highlighted in this time's severe downpour is the shoddy construction of many residential properties. A family living in a beautiful villa in Al Hail on the beach thought they had escaped relatively unscathed. Though the water from a nearby wadi did flow in, it had no force and soon subsided. But couple of hours later, the entire floor of the villa had caved in; with the mud and sand that it was built upon washed away, there was nothing left to support it. And if it's any consolation, whether one pays RO2,000 as rent or RO200, waterproofing of window frames (and ceilings in some cases), seems to be an alien concept.

On June 16, the Ministry of National Economy announced that the volume of damage caused by Cyclone Gonu was provisionally estimated between RO1.25bn and RO1.5bn, with damage to infrastructure pegged at RO1bn. This is in itself a big figure, but one that can be borne if an economy is strong and moving forward. H E Ahmed al Dheeb, Undersecretary, Ministry of Commerce and Industry (see full interview on pg 28 ) is of the firm view that in the long run the cyclone will not have an adverse effect on Oman's economy. "We have full confidence that the economic growth of the sultanate will continue as planned, after completing the task of repairing and rehabilitating infrastructure projects affected by the cyclone."

And it probably will. But what about the man selling silver trinkets who doesn't know when he can open his shop again? What about the receptionist and her husband who bring in RO600 a month and have nothing left of their house in Ghubra? How do they rebuild, let alone recoup their losses? There are estimates floating around of around 10,000 cars, either washed away or rendered inoperable by the floods. What happens to those who are still paying off instalments, but now need a new car and therefore, another loan?

The Chedi, which has been the most hard hit of all the hotels, estimates that their very popular restaurant will be open for business by about end-August. The Al Araimi complex, a popular destination in the Qurm area has suffered extensive damage and the mall management can't yet put a date to how long it will take to rebuild (see page 36). The Saud Bahwan Group's loss of cars at their decimated Ghala yard runs into four figures.

Casualties are inevitable in a storm like this but what makes it hard to bear is that at least some of it could have been avoided. People say that residential property prices in Ghubra and commercial prices in Qurm have already dipped. Tenants don't want to rebuild there – but these are still rumours. The fact is that these are desirable areas to live and do business in and the location of any commercial establishment is key to its success. Moving out may seem like the easy option, but it isn’t. It's not about relocating or about rebuilding as much as it is about rethinking options and strategies on the part of the policy makers and builders.